Modeling Bukhara Region’s Export Using The Arima Model
Keywords:
ARIMA model, Time series analysis, Export forecastingAbstract
The development of international trade is one of the key drivers of regional economic growth. In particular, the export potential of Bukhara region plays a significant role in the economy of Uzbekistan. This paper aims to analyze and forecast the dynamics of Bukhara’s exports by applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Using time series data on exports, the study identifies the optimal ARIMA specification, evaluates its statistical significance, and provides short-term forecasts. The results can support policymakers and entrepreneurs in designing effective export strategies.
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